Welcome to the 2023 NBA Finals! Vegas odds at the beginning of the 2022-2023 season predicting a finals match-up between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat had to have been one of the rare and oddest long shots. Of course, there’s always that one ticket floating out there… We are three games in, and Miami has come up strong and has taken a game in Denver, which has surprised everyone except Miami themselves. With the series moving back to sea level near the jaw dropping shores of South Beach in Miami, the opportunity for the Heat to make NBA history (opportunity to be the first 8th seed to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy) grows stronger with the high probability of Tyler Herro returning. Denver had a different game plan, stealing game three in Miami; we will also have to wait another game to see if Herro returns to the Heat Lineup.
The series may be guaranteed to go at least 6 games now with Miami hijacking game 2 in the Mile High City (first home court loss for the Nuggets in this playoff run), with Denver turning right back around and taking home court away from the Heat. The question will be if Denver will put their heads down and take the prize in a gentleman's sweep? Or will Miami prevail, dragging the series out? I may be one of the few excited to see how the match-up will play out! Miami is playing to be the first eighth seed to win an NBA title. Denver has the opportunity of winning their first NBA Title. There’s some interesting statistics and advantages backing Colorado’s NBA franchise. One advantage I have yet to hear any of the experts point out helping Denver Nuggets, is practicing, and playing games at elevation. A team coming in from a sea-level town can be affected and gassed not having much time to adjust expending oxygen at a slightly faster rate. The conditioning of all NBA players in the series has to be on point. The other advantage already mentioned, is the size differential between squads.
There’s some interesting factoids popping up, be it valid or a coinkydink predicting if Denver or Miami would win a game. Let’s discuss… When Nikola Jokic scores 40+points, their record is 0-3 in the playoffs; on the other hand, when Jokic has 6 or more assists, their record is 5-1. Thus, when Jokic distributes the ball and gets other players involved in the offense game plan, they tend to win. If Jokic tries to carry the team on his own shoulders, it’s not the winning formula. The statistics on the Miami side are a bit more convoluted when it comes to win or losses, with an exception of a couple stat lines that seem to be the difference between a winning formula and seeing a loss appear on their 2023 playoff record. One standout is the points Jimmy Butler scores and supporting points from fellow starters and the bench. If Jimmy Butler scores less than 20-25 points (or, in one game, didn’t play) and the fellow roster does not have more than two players score 20+ points, they are cruising for the L. Another observation I noticed in a couple of losses was the free throw discrepancy. When Miami lost their first game against Denver in the NBA Final, the Heat only had two free throw attempts! TWO, versus 20 the Nuggets took!!! A couple other items that popped up were turnovers and assists. When Miami would give up a game, they had a habit of turning over the ball (be it unforced, or a steal) 10+ times, and ball distribution was not the best, having less than 25 assists in many of those games in the playoff series. Team Field goal percentage and 3-point percentage between wins and losses weren’t drastically different. There were a few wins where the Heat’s FG and 3PT percentages did hover around 50%; where some of the losses those percentages where closer to 30%.
The main game plan Miami should aim for is shutting down the Denver bench, as well as fellow role players of Jokic; put themselves in opportunities of getting to the free throw line, and DON’T turn the ball over! Of course, on the other side, Denver needs to apply pressure defense to create turnovers, and Jokic to distribute the ball, getting his teammates involved in scoring. Game 4 tips off tonight and intriguing basketball heads will be tuned in to see if we’re going to get six games out of the series, and see if Herro will be back to be another ‘hot’ Miami weapon Denver will have to try and defend.
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