The Battle for History

 Welcome to the 2023 NBA Finals! Vegas odds at the beginning of the 2022-2023 season predicting a finals match-up between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat had to have been one of the rare and oddest long shots. Of course, there’s always that one ticket floating out there… We are three games in, and Miami has come up strong and has taken a game in Denver, which has surprised everyone except Miami themselves. With the series moving back to sea level near the jaw dropping shores of South Beach in Miami, the opportunity for the Heat to make NBA history (opportunity to be the first 8th seed to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy) grows stronger with the high probability of Tyler Herro returning. Denver had a different game plan, stealing game three in Miami; we will also have to wait another game to see if Herro returns to the Heat Lineup.

The series may be guaranteed to go at least 6 games now with Miami hijacking game 2 in the Mile High City (first home court loss for the Nuggets in this playoff run), with Denver turning right back around and taking home court away from the Heat. The question will be if Denver will put their heads down and take the prize in a gentleman's sweep? Or will Miami prevail, dragging the series out? I may be one of the few excited to see how the match-up will play out! Miami is playing to be the first eighth seed to win an NBA title. Denver has the opportunity of winning their first NBA Title. There’s some interesting statistics and advantages backing Colorado’s NBA franchise. One advantage I have yet to hear any of the experts point out helping Denver Nuggets, is practicing, and playing games at elevation. A team coming in from a sea-level town can be affected and gassed not having much time to adjust expending oxygen at a slightly faster rate. The conditioning of all NBA players in the series has to be on point. The other advantage already mentioned, is the size differential between squads. 

There’s some interesting factoids popping up, be it valid or a coinkydink predicting if Denver or Miami would win a game. Let’s discuss… When Nikola Jokic scores 40+points, their record is 0-3 in the playoffs; on the other hand, when Jokic has 6 or more assists, their record is 5-1. Thus, when Jokic distributes the ball and gets other players involved in the offense game plan, they tend to win. If Jokic tries to carry the team on his own shoulders, it’s not the winning formula. The statistics on the Miami side are a bit more convoluted when it comes to win or losses, with an exception of a couple stat lines that seem to be the difference between a winning formula and seeing a loss appear on their 2023 playoff record. One standout is the points Jimmy Butler scores and supporting points from fellow starters and the bench. If Jimmy Butler scores less than 20-25 points (or, in one game, didn’t play) and the fellow roster does not have more than two players score 20+ points, they are cruising for the L. Another observation I noticed in a couple of losses was the free throw discrepancy. When Miami lost their first game against Denver in the NBA Final, the Heat only had two free throw attempts! TWO, versus 20 the Nuggets took!!! A couple other items that popped up were turnovers and assists. When Miami would give up a game, they had a habit of turning over the ball (be it unforced, or a steal) 10+ times, and ball distribution was not the best, having less than 25 assists in many of those games in the playoff series.  Team Field goal percentage and 3-point percentage between wins and losses weren’t drastically different. There were a few wins where the Heat’s FG and 3PT percentages did hover around 50%; where some of the losses those percentages where closer to 30%. 

The main game plan Miami should aim for is shutting down the Denver bench, as well as fellow role players of Jokic; put themselves in opportunities of getting to the free throw line, and DON’T turn the ball over! Of course, on the other side, Denver needs to apply pressure defense to create turnovers, and Jokic to distribute the ball, getting his teammates involved in scoring. Game 4 tips off tonight and intriguing basketball heads will be tuned in to see if we’re going to get six games out of the series, and see if Herro will be back to be another ‘hot’ Miami weapon Denver will have to try and defend. 

Mile High Brooms to A Brutal Game 7 Save!

 Who Let the Brooms Out?! - Sweep…Sweep-Sweep-Sweep! That was the Tune stuck in my head earlier last week as the Denver Nuggets secured a sweep in Lala Land at the Crypto.com Arena on South Figueroa Street, Monday night 22nd day in May. I thought I would be posting this amateur reflection last Thursday, with the heavy anticipation, expectation that Miami would follow up with their own sweep the following evening, Tuesday May 23rd. Hearts all over South Beach must have dropped into their guts when Boston decided to show up, winning game 5, game 6, forcing game 7 on the historic parquet floor at Boston Gardens, oh, I mean TD Garden. I felt I was experiencing the opening theme of Wide World of Sports repeating over and over again after game 5 and 6 between Boston and Miami - “The Thrill of victory! Or, the Agony of Defeat…” We as fans are part of the spectacle gleaning off the ‘human drama of athletic competition’. Zaza Pachulia also showed up streaming through my mind at the end of game six, echoing his sentiments, “Game 7! Game 7 Baby!!! Nothing easy… NOTHING EASY!!!’ Ahhh… the great NBA and sports memories through the years… Priceless!

The sexy NBA matchups of our past are becoming as antiquated as the boomer generation that revelled in the cliche East Coast versus West Coast rivalry over the last two generations, Los Angeles Lakers versus Boston Celtics. There’s a new kid in town, Mr. Gen Z, and they are not intimidated or swayed by their intentions to overcome the ‘I’m special!’ helicopter doting upbringing. The Gen X generation are raising a class of thick-skinned athletes ready to take over a league once dominated by few teams. If you haven’t been paying attention in the past two-three seasons, or wearing blinders (only paying homage to your favorite team), there’s a paradigm shift emerging in the NBA, and it favors every fan. 

No one predicted the Los Angeles Lakers would look two-steps stale, and cough up four games in a row to the prime seed, Denver Nuggets. Not even the referees could dissuade the mile-high franchise from bouldering over everything the Lakers attempted to throw up against their game plan. LeBron, even with his 40+ points performance could no longer carry the City of Angels and their squad on his shoulders to attempt the impossible- overcoming an 0-3 series deficit. King James needed perfection performances from ‘Cowboy Kobe’ Austin Reaves, ‘Unibrow’ Anthony Davis and stealth accuracy from Rui Hachimura. Fans and professional analysts alike were thinking the series would go at least six, seven games for the eyes to feast on. Nope, the dudes in purple-and-gold were gassed. They attempted to put on as best possible a show as their seventh-seed exposed. After being defeated in division play-off series two years in a row as one of the western conference top seeds, the Denver Nuggets were adamant with themselves, and their fan base to not let that opportunity to represent the West in the NBA Finals for a third time. Coach Michael Malone has a bulldog mentality and has obviously rubbed off on his players. Nikola turned in another triple-double performance and teammates Murray, Porter and Gordon have been showing up game in and game out to create frustrating defense scenario situations for Los Angeles. 

On the other coastline, Miami has walked over the line drawn in the sand by expert analysts, and league assumptions. Coach Eric Spoelstra along with team leader Jimmy Butler are not backing down striving for a crash course with their west coast nemesis Denver and Jokic. Of course, nothing came easy for the eighth-seed Miami going into game four at home versus Boston. The following three games last week became a roller coaster of abject to thrilling performances witnessed on both sidelines. In my own opinion, I felt if Miami did not win game six at home and had to go back to Boston for game seven, we may experience the first NBA playoff series comeback by Boston, winning a series after trailing 0-3. Little did I know, the grit and determination that showed up from Miami blew the Celtics fans to dismay and impressed me that Monday night on the 29th day in May. Miami is only the second team in NBA history to make the NBA Finals as the 8th seed. The last team to make it to the Finals from the last playoff spot were the 1999 New York Knicks. The Knicks ultimately lost in the Finals to the San Antonio Spurs in five games (4-1). Miami has an opportunity to make history as being the first 8th seed to hoist the Larry O’brien Golden Layup Trophy. On the other end, Denver has an opportunity to park the Larry O’brien for the first time 5.280 feet above sea level in their NBA history. Another dynamic between the two franchises is their lack of respect for one another; this series has the potential of being physical and explosive! For anyone thinking this matchup between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets, as ‘Meh’, or ‘Borrrrring…’ Those reflections couldn’t be farther from the truth. The 2023 NBA Finals are going to be fireworks, and I am here for the show! Get your popcorn and soda pop ready! I know what I am doing tonight at 17:30 PST, what about you?!