The most popular and competitive fantasy tournaments in the United States revolves around the most aggressive and infamous national leagues that took over Sundays from God, and practically putting America’s pastime game of baseball out to pasture. Fantasy Football has gained incredible status in the last two decades. When I began playing in 2001, I was a rare female participant nudging my way into a macho-male dominant creation. I mean, who wants to be out swindled and beaten by the ‘chick’?! Oh, the fury and projecting spit I’ve experienced over the years from fellow competing teams that couldn’t quite grasp how a ‘girl’ (Uh-hum… Actually woman, I was 30-something when the millennium transpired) could know anything, or God forbid keep track or have an opinion about American Football?!! (Gasp…)
Well, my fellow fantasy fans, it’s simple… One must pay attention
to details and patterns, based on a team’s composition and performance,
beginning with the Coaches, and what their outlook, mission and value to create
a ‘winning’ product on the gridiron. Against possibly strong beliefs, one
cannot just plug and produce premier players in any system. It can be a complex
dance knowing the players that will fit in a coach’s scheme and premier playbook.
On top of that, there are adjustments to every plan based on one’s opponent and
their presented strengths. It’s as if the greater leaders on the sidelines
adapt the teachings of Sun Tzu; after all, one does play on a field, attacking
the other front line, penetrating with blitzes, sweeps, air raids, as well as throwing
missiles and bombs-ultimately breaking down to an ‘art of war’ attempting to be
standing stronger, versus experiencing attrition in the 60 minutes of ‘battle’.
Okay, maybe not so straight forward or ‘simple’ as one may
assume. Even experts and seasoned analysts will get burned on their preseason
predictions regarding dominant veteran performers, sleepers and rookies that may
or may not fit in well to NFL from college. I feel the mistake many fantasy
players make, is not paying attention to college football. I mean, NCAA
Division I, II and III are technically the ‘farm teams’ of our National Football
League. The conferences in the NCAA are not all equal when it comes to preparing
players for the next level. Majority never make it as a professional. Some
programs seem to have more success than others year-in-and-year-out in
producing incredible athletes groomed to succeed In the NFL. The most prominent
conferences would be SEC, PAC-12, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and Independent. And…. Word
to the wise… Paying attention to programs where certain phenomenal players come
out of can be favorable to your draft day when picking rookies and sleepers to
fill in depth of your fantasy roster. I.e., there’s never been a successful
quarterback that has come out of USC; Carson Palmer came close… and that’s it!
So, for all those Sam Darnold fans… Let it go… You’re going to have to let that
nuance out that back door.
Moving on… Regarding nuances, there’s many in both PPR and non-PPR
leagues. Of course, I prefer PPR over set points system based on specified yards benchmark, and scores;
it’s more exciting and gives team work-horses an opportunity to create points versus
the running back that comes in for goal line plays and scores with a total of 5
yards, 10 yards, versus a back or tight-end that has 125-150 yards creating that
opportunity within the red zone. Most running backs, wide receivers and tight
ends with value come from teams that have invested in a strong offensive line.
One does get the rare performance though, when a team has a great option
quarterback that can scramble, like Russel Wilson. Seattle’s offensive line
these last few years have been horrible! Horrible! Yet, Wilson has the wheels
to get out of the pocket and create plays. New Orleans has not invested in the
greatest offensive line either (hence, Brees injury last year with broken ribs).
Luckily, Brees and up-and-coming quarterback Taysom Hill’s ability to scramble
and dump the ball to Alvin Kamara majority of the time gave them ample opportunities
to squeak out a win– Boy, did he rack up points for fantasy owners! Wowsers! Now
that Brees is retired, will he have the same output? Hmmmm… We all look forward
to finding out!
There’s plethora of strategies when it comes to drafting a
team based on if its an auction versus snake draft. You must look at value of
each position as well when it’s a PPR points system versus Non-PPR leagues. How
many points do they average? What’s their projection for the upcoming year? How
consistent has the player been in producing points? Are they on the same team?
Has there been a coaching change in the offseason? Has there been a quarterback
change? Projections are tricky. Depending on strength of schedule, coaching
staff turnover, players who left, players acquired, production can potentially
change significantly in either a positive or lackluster direction. Is it a
high-throwing playbook? Is it an option playbook? Do they have one prominent
running back, or running back by committee? Is it a quarterback high management
system with short clean passing, versus airing it out, or an option play caller
with wheels? Do they have a strong tight-end and fullback presence? What’s
their special teams like? How’s the defense? So many scenarios to run through
to secure a decent choice. And, after all that… You can still be screwed! I had
Michael Thomas perform as my prime receiver four years running up through last
year’s draft. I chose to pay a slight premium to keep him, believing he would
continue his stellar run, with nothing really changing in the New Orleans
offense (I drafted him 5 years ago for $3 in an auction/keepers league; so the
premium I ended up paying was a whole $29, still less then if he was up for
auction), and got seriously burned! Trying to find a consistent replacement was
an absolute hodge podge. Needless to say, last year was not a great fantasy
year, as secure players in past seasons did nothing.
That’s leads me to another item to pay attention to- shelf
life of a productive fantasy player. Will they still throw for over 4000 yards?
Will they run for over 1000 yards? Will they continue to be the go-to for
scoring? Every fantasy phenom has a ‘sweet spot’ of productive years. Then,
that one year… Poof! The value diminishes, as if Thanos had one of his epiphanies
waving his fingers, and the scoring, gains evaporate into thin air as they
become enveloped by the swarming defense, or the sudden tweak of tendons and
bones encroach upon their finely tuned anatomy. There’s that moment where you
sigh…. Have a little sniff… and just like a brisk Autumn wind swirling through
the air, have to cut them from fantasy contention. It’s a harsh reality, but
one must do what one has to do to reach the championship game.
Ahhhhh, and then there’s the rookies and sleepers preparing
for greatness awaiting in the wings… Or, in this case, pacing the sidelines. This
is where one must really question how much weight one places on the experts and
preseason performance. Again, (as I lightly borrow from Glengarry Glen Ross) always
be evaluating… Always be evaluating, ALWAYS BE EVALUATING! What perse’ are we
evaluating? The coach’s system; strength of schedule; the offensive line; the
defense and special teams! Everything! Everything! Everything! (Inserting Violent
Femmes) Add it up! Add it up! Yes, Add it up! (Can you tell yet, she’s one of
those Gen-Xers…. Run!)
Okay, back to all seriousness… Becoming an ‘expert’ fantasy
player (if there is such a thing), takes hours, years, eons of research, and a
little luck. We all have our moments basking in the sun… And, those spectacular
seasons of absolute disaster leaving an ‘L’ on the forehead, and the winner’s
choice of doling out some sort of public task displaying fantasy failure. The most
important takeaway in participating in the nation’s most popular fantasy
outlet, is to enjoy all the moments and the group of friends you’ve selectively
chosen to play with, and they chose you! (There’s been a couple leagues I’ve
been un-invited, due to winning too consistently. It’s not my fault for their insecurities
or lack of research). Ultimately, it’s all about being joyful and witty banter.
I now have belonged to the same fantasy leagues with quite the professionals
and heavy researchers themselves for the last 11 years, and I’ve enjoyed the
winning and losing times! I hope everyone playing in fantasy sports has the
same fun, competitive and jovial experiences as I’ve had throughout my years of
playing. It’s been an absolute blast!
Good Luck!
